Logicist Agent-Based Economics: A New Paradigm - Selmer Bringsjord

 

Logicist Agent-Based Economics: A New Paradigm - Selmer Bringsjord

Sage 4101

April 6, 2016 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM

I summarize, at only a Scientific-American level, a new paradigm in economics: logicist agent-based economics, or LABE for short. By ‘logicist’ is meant that this new paradigm is rooted in formal (computational) logic. The adjective ‘agent-based’ in part speaks for itself; but only in part, because today’s so-called “agent-based modeling and simulation,” which is what the lion’s share of computational economics is currently based upon, uses excruciatingly thin models of real-world agents. Since most of human cognition (and indeed all of human communication) is absent from these models, they cannot have significant predictive power. Parallel defects infect the paradigm of micro-simulation, which was unfortunately used to model and “predict” the effects of “Obamacare,” and is much in use at the moment to make predictions about the effects of tax plans proposed by various candidates for the US Presidency. The talk enumerates places where LABE has been employed (see the papers linked-to below), but toward the end includes brief discussion of an initial foray into the realm of microfinance (specifically into predictions about the efficacy of so-called Roscas, rotating savings and credit associations), and into taxation. On this last topic, we can see that unless LABE is used, any such belief as that a financial-transaction tax (a la Bernie Sanders) will be net beneficial is mere fideism, and likewise, any such belief as that dramatic tax cuts (a la Ted Cruz) will be net-revenue losers is profoundly illogical.

Two Readings

 

HD VIDEO LINK


On Logicist Agent-Based Economics
A Three-Pronged Simonesque Approach to Modeling and Simulation in Deviant ‘Bi-Pay’ Auctions, and Beyond

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